The statistics presented in Figure 2 cover two reference years for each city: the darker colours — next to the central axis — show the share of the resident population in each functional urban area that was living within city boundaries, while the lighter colours show the share of the resident population living within the commuting zone. The global population growth rate has already slowed down considerably: It reached its peak at over 2% in the late 1960s and has been falling since. The United Nations projects that world population growth will slow significantly over the course of the 21st century, coming close to its peak at 10.9 billion by 2100. If we assume optimistic progress in global education, as in the Fast Track (FT) scenario, then global population is projected to increase to only 8.9 billion. Figure 1 compares the overall size of the 20 largest functional urban areas in the EU, as well as presenting the relative importance — in population terms — between cities and their surrounding commuting zones. One way to gauge the credibility of UN projections for the future is to look back at its track record of predictions in the past. Most projections were close to this value: even the earliest revision in 1968 projected a 1990 population of 5.44 billion. All five of the lowest unemployment rates for people living in cities were in eastern EU Member States, with the lowest rate in Czechia (2.8 %); Croatia was the only eastern Member State to report an unemployment rate for people living in cities that was above the EU-28 average. Increasing life expectancy and falling child mortality in every country are of course increasing population numbers. The demographers expect the African population to stay well below 3 billion, with population growth almost coming to a halt at the end of this century. It was last revised in November 2019. The first chart shows the annual number of deaths over the same period. And it is also clear from the TFR projections of the UN. Between 1950 and today it was mostly a widening of the entire pyramid that was responsible for the increase of the world population. Detailed information concerning the definition of concepts used for assessing the degree of urbanisation is provided in Chapter 2 of a methodological manual on territorial typologies. The neighbouring age groups — 15-24 years and 35-44 years — also recorded a fall in their shares, with all of the older age groups (from 45-54 years upwards) recording an increase in their shares. The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Environment (DG Environment) works on a range of issues with the goal of improving urban environments, for example: The urban environment is included in the 7th environmental action programme under priority objective 8 ‘Sustainable cities: working together for common solutions’. The population of the Tumut Shire in New South Wales is 12, 500. We show how the world population grew over the last several thousand years and we explain what has been driving this change. This discrepancy in estimates today is also obvious in the comparison of the UN and WC-IIASA, where the UN mostly assumes that fertility rates today are higher than those assumed by WC-IIASA.For the development over the next century however the changes over time are more fundamental. Glob Environ Change. The projections by education scenario can be seen in this chart. There were seven other cities where this rate reached or exceeded 50.0 %: In 2017, the majority (26 from 34) of the EU cities with an old-age dependency rate of 45.0 % or more (as shown by the darkest shade of blue in Map 3) were located in Italy (12 cities), Germany (eight cities) or France (six cities; 2014 or 2015 data). As such, western European cities were often characterised by an urban paradox, insofar as while they generated high levels of wealth, they also commonly reported that relatively large shares of their populations were living with the risk of poverty or social exclusion. The highest old-age dependency ratio for cities in the EU was recorded in the French resort of Fréjus (63.7 %). Rural areas had the highest shares of people living in households with very low work intensity in 2017 in 13 EU Member States, including all of the eastern and northern Member States except for Czechia, Denmark, Romania and Finland, as well as three southern Member States (Spain, Cyprus and Portugal), but none of the western Member States. Doubling of world population unlikely. The only city with a ratio of 45.0 % or higher that was not in these two EU Member States was the atypical case of the autonomous Spanish city of Melilla. More than half the world’s population resides in urban areas: cities continue to attract an increasing share of people in search of a job and an improved quality of life. In the many millennia up to that point in history very high mortality of children counteracted high fertility. There are a range of projections for future population growth. If you now compare the base of the pyramid in 2018 with the projection for 2100 you see that the coming decades will not resemble the past: According to the projections there will be fewer children born at the end of this century than today. For many countries the demographic transition has already ended, and as the global fertility rate has now halved we know that the world as a whole is approaching the end of rapid population growth. – Crucially, education has also changed substantially across Africa: The young generation is much better educated than older generations and the share of children out of school is falling rapidly.– After decades of stagnation in many parts of Africa, economies across the continent are now growing and the share of the population in extreme poverty is now falling. But we know this is not the case: population growth is slowing and will come to an end. Considering just the data for cities, a similar pattern emerges, with all northern Member States reporting relatively high employment rates in 2017 (74.3 % in Finland was the lowest) and all southern Member States reporting relatively low rates (72.9 % in Portugal was the highest). This age range provides some compatibility taking account of different practices concerning the proportion of young persons remaining within education systems as well (statutory) retirement or pension ages across the EU. The four largest Member States — in population terms — all recorded their lowest unemployment rates among people living in rural areas and their highest among people living in cities. An even more substantial difference is projected for Africa where they project that the increase of the school-age population comes to an end below 600 million as early as 2050. This then allows comparisons of how education matters for the size and distribution of the future population of the planet. Aside from Belgium (mentioned above), the share of people living in households with very low work intensity was more than 5.0 pp higher for cities than for either of the other two degrees of urbanisation in Austria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Germany. the coastal cities of Cannes (2014 data) in France, Savona, Genova and Trieste in Italy, and Waveney (which includes Lowestoft) in the United Kingdom; Dessau-Roßlau and Görlitz in eastern Germany, the former between Leipzig and Berlin and the latter on the border between Germany and Poland. As such, cities combined the lowest employment rate with the highest share of people living in households with low work intensity, while the reverse was true for rural areas. How accurate have past population projections been? Today, its population is around 1.3 billion; by 2100 it’s projected to more than triple to 4.3 billion. A difference of almost one billion – as early as 2060 – may therefore be solely driven by differences in progress on global education. The largest populations in functional urban areas of the EU in 2017 were recorded in Paris (12.8 million; 2015 data) and London (12.1 million), followed — at some distance — by Madrid (Spain; 6.6 million). By the end of the century the researchers expect a population of under-15-year-olds that is barely larger than today. Statistics for cities refer to the total number of inhabitants according to their usual residence, in other words, the place where a person normally lives, regardless of temporary absences; this is generally their place of legal or registered residence. Peak population growth was reached in 1968 with an annual growth of 2.1%. They then combine the country specific expertise of these researchers with similar quantitative information that the UN and others rely on as well.12 The work by WC-IIASA is highly respected among demographers and key publications by the researchers are regularly published in the scientific journal Nature.13. This may be contrasted with the polycentric structure of cities that is observed in Germany, where there is no single dominant city and many administrative and/or legislative functions are undertaken at the level of regional Länder. China would therefore have accounted for 28% of the world total. It is possible to switch this chart to any other country or world region in the world. This pattern may be particularly common in cities which are characterised by large student populations or cities which attract graduate labour, as these young people are more likely to choose to delay parenthood in order to first establish a career. This interactive visualization you can change to any other country or world region. … while many of the cities with low shares of young people were in Germany or Romania. The UN expects the population of Africa to increase 3.3-fold – from 1.3 billion in 2019 to 4.28 billion by the end of the century. In Paris: the commuting zone accounted for a relatively small part of the total population.
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